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| Fed Report Doubts Early Recovery for Energy States |
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| Nation - Economy | |||
| Stephen C. Fehr | |||
| Monday, 08 February 2010 03:00 | |||
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Washington, DC, USA. A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City knocks down a perception that energy states could recover from the recession faster than non-energy states. The report, by Mark C. Snead of the bank’s Denver office, says that energy states typically enter recessions late and exit early as energy prices recover along with the rest of the overall national economy. Snead says “weakness in natural gas prices suggests that a rapid recovery well ahead of the non-energy states seems unlikely in the current cycle.” Nowhere is that more true than in Oklahoma, which is confronting the worst budget crisis in modern history, according to The Oklahoman newspaper. The state has been battered by the decline in natural gas prices. Other major natural gas-producing states whose revenues have affected by low prices are Texas, Wyoming, New Mexico, Louisiana and Colorado. Snead, the assistant vice president, branch executive and economist at the Kansas City Fed, does a nice job defining which states are energy states and how they have fared historically in economic downturns. He identifies a “top tier” of energy states:
Though not all energy states are positioned to lead the nation in the recovery, several of them are financially stronger than non-energy states, especially Texas, North Dakota, Alaska and Montana. In fact, North Dakota and Alaska were the top two states in job growth during the recession. CitationAre the Energy States Still Energy States? Mark C. Snead. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Economic Review (Fourth Quarter 2009).
Download PDF Abstract Traditional energy states managed to avoid the early stages of the recent national recession, buoyed by record high crude oil and natural gas prices. Both production and exploration for crude oil and natural gas expanded rapidly in response to the spike in energy prices, propelling strong job and income gains in the energy states. But the strong performance of the energy states through the early stages of the recession subsequently reversed itself under the weight of collapsing energy prices. These states began to underperform non-energy states by the second quarter of 2009. These gyrations in economic activity are reminiscent of the volatility experienced during the 1970s and early 1980s, suggesting that the energy cycle is alive and well in the energy states.
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