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Louis Jacobson
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Friday, 27 June 2008
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Washington, DC, USA. Finally, the last primary votes have been cast, and Barack Obama and John McCain are jousting with each other.
Obama has double-digit leads in two national polls, but the election poises for decision in a half-dozen toss-up states.
So much has happened in the presidential race over the past three months that voters can be forgiven if they feel dazed. But despite all the political and media frenzy — and despite Democrat Barack Obama’s double-digit leads in two recent national polls — the outcome of the 2008 election is still likely to hinge on a half-dozen hotly contested battleground states, according to Out There’s third analysis of the “purple” swing states that are neither safely Republican (“red”) nor Democratic (“blue”).
Out There currently posits that Obama can claim 242 electoral votes as either safe or leaning in his direction, while Republican John McCain can claim 221 electoral votes in the same way for himself. Reaching the magical 270 to win the White House will depend on winning some of the following toss-up states: Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia, which cumulatively are worth 75 electoral votes.
Just three months ago, Out There’s analysis concluded that Obama led in electoral votes, 259-221, with 58 in the toss-up category. While a number of states have moved modestly toward either Obama or McCain over the past three months, the only state to make a difference in Out There’s electoral-vote tally was Michigan, which shifted from leaning Democratic to toss-up in this assessment.
On the one hand, a Quinnipiac Poll released June 26 found Obama ahead in Michigan, 48 percent-42 percent. However, the state’s mood is volatile from continued economic troubles under Gov. Jenni
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Pamela M. Prah
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Wednesday, 18 June 2008
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Washington, DC, USA. Some governors on the shortlist of potential picks for vice president could turn their states upside down politically if they actually got the nod.
If picked to serve in an Obama administration, at least three Democratic governors would have to leave their states to Republicans, who are now second in command. A McCain presidency could mean at least one “red’ governership going Democratic “blue.”
While many people assume that lieutenant governors are of the same party as the state’s No. 1, that is not always the case. In 18 states, voters elect the governor and lieutenant governor separately, a situation that can lead to a split ticket. Democrats currently hold 28 governorships to 22 for the Republicans.
Democratic Govs. Tim Kaine of Virginia, Janet Napolitano of Arizona, Brian Schweitzer of Montana and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas are often mentioned by political and media analysts as contenders for the No. 2 spot or a Cabinet post under the presumed Democratic nominee, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama. But the consequences could cost the party locally.
- If Virginia’s Kaine were picked, the lieutenant governor is Bill Bolling,
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G. Terry Madonna & Michael L. Young
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Wednesday, 11 June 2008
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Lancaster, PA, DC, USA. On the campaign trail, one of Hillary Clinton’s favorite quips was the one about it taking still another Clinton to clean up the messes of yet another Bush. John McCain, who will soon be running hard in Pennsylvania, isn’t known to seek advice from Hillary, but he might well adapt her tidy formulation to his uphill race in the state. In McCain’s case; however, both Hillary’s logic and her phrase are reversed; for McCain it won’t be another Clinton cleaning up the problems of a Bush, but rather adopting another Bush’s political game plan to finish up what a Clinton started.
The Bush in this case is Bush 41, George Herbert Walker Bush, and the last Republican presidential candidate to win in Pennsylvania. And the Clinton is Hillary herself, whose April campaign against Obama in Pennsylvania revealed the Democratic presumptive nominee’s grievous weaknesses among culturally conservative working class white voters. To win Pennsylvania McCain needs to pick up where Hillary ended, and he needs to follow Bush’s 1988 political map to get there.
More specifically, the argument for McCain in Pennsylvania is three-fold:
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Louis Jacobson
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Tuesday, 10 June 2008
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Charleston, SC, USA. High turnout among African-Americans and younger voters supporting U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) could reshape the Southern political landscape this fall. But with a few exceptions, Democrats may find gains in statewide contests thwarted by bad timing and a potential conservative backlash.
 Democratic and Republican strategists agree that African Americans and young voters of all backgrounds in the South stand ready to come out in droves in November to back Obama now that he has clinched the Democratic nomination — just as they did for the recently concluded presidential primaries.
Some Democrats hold out hope that Obama could actually win one of the six southern states that he won so convincingly during the primary season — Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina — all of which have voted strongly Republican in recent presidential elections.
But while it’s an outside possibility in North Carolina, most analysts believe Obama’s likelihood of picking off any of the other five southern states is a long shot.
More plausible, though, is a November scenario in which the voters Obama dr
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Springfield, VA, USA. Society (the women and men around us) has always been more comfortable if its members fall within certain known, established patterns: this is how we dress, this is what we say, this is... |
Washington, DC, USA. Science shows that the human brain and central nervous system form before the remaining portions of our overall body plan. This is a central insight and the province of developmental biology, particularly embryology, which deals with the development of organs and other anatomical structures... |
Edmunton, Alberta, Canada. Does emotional wisdom come with age? Researchers identified brain patterns that help healthy people over the age of 60 regulate and control emotion better than younger counterparts. Two brain regions increased activity when... |
Washington, DC, USA. Criticism of the Washington state Democratic Party for an attack ad that linked an Italian-American politician to fictional organized crime. The Pennsylvania Senate ponders expansion of bathroom access to people with bowel disorders. North Carolina's motor vehicle department embarrassed by a sample license plate on its... |
Washington, DC, USA. As fuel and energy costs continue to soar to record highs, a growing number of states are offering more of their public employees compressed workweeks to hold down states’ energy spending and give long-distance commuters some relief from paying high gas prices.
Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman... |
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Pauline Vu
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Tuesday, 01 July 2008
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Pauline Vu
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Saturday, 28 June 2008
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Daniel Petty
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Monday, 23 June 2008
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John Gramlich
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Friday, 30 May 2008
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Stateline
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Friday, 30 May 2008
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TS-Si News Service
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Thursday, 29 May 2008
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Victoria Ekstrom
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Friday, 23 May 2008
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Pamela M. Prah
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Friday, 09 May 2008
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So They Say
Throw your dreams into space like a kite, and you do not know what it will bring back, a new life, a new friend, a new love, a new country.
Anais Nin
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Subscribe To The TS-Si Insider
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Finding Our Way
Richard Smith, Editor-in-Chief, introduces Cases Journal. Dr. Smith urges all physicians to submit their case reports to the new open access Cases Journal, which publishes case reports from any area of healthcare.
Cases Journal will publish any case report that is understandable, ethical, authentic, and includes all essential information. A more selective companion, the Journal of Medical Case Reports, publishes original and interesting case reports that contribute significantly to medical knowledge. Article submissions are subject to potential publication by either journal. All reports will be entered in a common and open access database.
Time 00:01:35.
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