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Washington, DC, USA. Finally, the last primary votes have been cast, and Barack Obama and John McCain are jousting with each other.
Obama has double-digit leads in two national polls, but the election poises for decision in a half-dozen toss-up states.
So much has happened in the presidential race over the past three months that voters can be forgiven if they feel dazed. But despite all the political and media frenzy — and despite Democrat Barack Obama’s double-digit lead... |
June 27th, 2008
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 | Charleston, SC, USA. High turnout among African-Americans and younger voters supporting U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) could reshape the Southern political landscape this fall. But with a few exceptions, Democrats may find gains in statewide contests thwarted by bad timing and a potential conservative backlash.
Democratic and Republican strategists agree that African Americans and young voters of all backgrounds in the South stand ready to come out in droves in November to back Obam... |
June 10th, 2008
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| Washington, DC, USA. After a pair of hard-fought primaries, North Carolina joins Missouri, Washington and Indiana on the Out There list of states where partisan control of the governorship could flip this fall.
Since January, the last time Out There assessed the 11 governorships up in 2008, the contests are swinging to extremes — either getting hotter than ever, or snoozier.
The likelihood of a switch in partisan control of the top spot has grown in at least three states — Missou... |
May 8th, 2008
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| Washington, DC, USA. With a sagging economy and a divisive war occupying Americans’ minds, will social issues be overshadowed in campaign 2008? Quite possibly — but it would be foolhardy to write them off.
National polls — and more than 50 state and national experts contacted for this column — broadly agree that Americans’ deepening concerns about the economy are currently overshadowing the kinds of polarizing social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage, that have helped shape r... |
May 1th, 2008
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| Warwick, RI, USA. The blue states of Connecticut and Rhode Island have had a long tradition of electing Republican governors. But the combination led at times to difficult — even chaotic — policymaking. If you’re a Republican, it isn’t easy to win in those overwhelmingly blue states. Unless, that is, you’re running for governor. Over the past two decades, both states’ governorships have been dominated as strongly by Republicans as their legislatures have been by Democrats.
The last D... |
April 12th, 2008
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| Washington, DC, USA. With the nation swept up in a riveting presidential election, state legislative races might rank far down the political totem pole this fall. But with almost two dozen chambers at risk of a takeover by their minority parties — roughly one of every four that have elections — state legislative contests will carry weight this year, both for the obvious policy implications as well as for their impact on the 2010 round of congressional redistricting.
For the first — but not... |
March 22th, 2008
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| Washington, DC, USA. Last July – a lifetime ago in the 2008 presidential race – “Out There” rated 19 battleground states on how likely each was to vote Republican or Democratic in the general election.
Eight months later, the list of states that are neither solidly Republican “red” nor Democratic “blue” remains the same. But within those battleground states, Democrats have been methodically gaining ground.
While there are differences in how U.S. Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) or Hi... |
March 8th, 2008
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| Washington, DC, USA. One of the more striking patterns to emerge from Super Tuesday’s primaries and caucuses — and Nebraska’s last weekend – is how thoroughly U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) triumphed in the very red states of the Great Plains and Mountain West. He strikes unlikely connections with voters in the reddest of red states. However the Democratic contest plays out, the Illinois senator has breathed new energy and resources into several long-forsaken state parties.
His winnin... |
February 13th, 2008
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| Washington, DC, USA. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and Alabama Gov. Bob Riley (R) aren’t often spoken of in the same breath. But both cheated political death, and their stories hold lessons for other politicians. After Alabamians in 2003 voted down a $1.2 billion tax hike proposed by Riley in his first year in office, he seemed like a dead man walking. Riley’s own state GOP had fought the tax hike. National anti-tax advocates made the tax plan – and Riley himself – public enemy No. 1.
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February 3th, 2008
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| Washington, DC, USA. Once, races for state attorney general (AG) were quiet affairs. No longer. In most states, attorneys general wield enormous power in such areas as consumer protection and criminal prosecutions — and they can use the job to vault into higher office.
Meanwhile, businesses, unions, trial lawyers and political parties are spending increasing attention and money in these races.
Democrats historically have held the lion’s share of attorneys general’s offices, incl... |
January 20th, 2008
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| Washington, DC, USA. On Election Day 2007, the two most vulnerable governorships in the country — Kentucky’s and Louisiana’s — fell to the opposing party. But political junkies need not despair about a lack of competitive races in 2008.
Since August, the last time Out There surveyed the landscape, three key gubernatorial contests have intensified, with incumbents feeling the heat in Missouri, Indiana and Washington state.
In this column’s latest assessment, each of these three g... |
January 6th, 2008
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| Governors focus on competence as offset
Washington, DC, USA. Not a single governor or state legislator wields authority over the conduct of the Iraq War, yet a broad range of party strategists and political analysts agree that state races in 2008 will be shaped, mostly indirectly, by public attitudes towards that conflict.
Unless there’s a sea change in public opinion, that’s bad news for Republicans.
Some war-related issues, such as the impact of... |
December 16th, 2007
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 | complex situation foils predictions
Charleston, WV, USA. Viewed in isolation, the past two presidential elections would suggest that West Virginia is headed full steam into the Republican camp. Voters in the the Mountain State have supported every Democratic presidential nominee since Franklin Roosevelt — except in the years that Republican Presidents Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan were re-elected.
But — the Mountain State pulled the lever for George W. Bush in 2000 by a ... |
December 2th, 2007
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 | Some govs counter their party's low popularity
Columbus, OH, USA. When Democrat Steve Beshear ousted GOP Gov. Ernie Fletcher in Kentucky this month, his victory was widely attributed to Fletcher’s ethics troubles. But Beshear’s win also fit a broader pattern in recent years — of Democrats winning the governorship of “red” states and of Republicans winning the governorship of “blue” states.
Forget the extreme partisanship — and record-low approval ratings — in Washington, D.... |
November 18th, 2007
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 | Solid Republicans willing to consider voting for a Dem
Columbus, OH, USA (Louis Jacobson). After 16 years in which the Republican Party had Ohio on a string, Democrats are resurgent in this politically crucial state, led by a Democratic governor who’s flying high.
Gov. Ted Strickland, a once-obscure congressman from Appalachia, cruised to victory in a Democratic sweep of Ohio in 2006.
With Republicans tarnished by a statehouse financial scandal known as “Coingate,” the... |
October 28th, 2007
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